What Tesla CEO Elon Musk says publicly about the company's progress on a fully autonomous driving system doesn't match up with "engineering reality," according to a memo that summarizes a meeting between California regulators and employees at the automaker.
The memo, which transparency site
Plainsite obtained via a Freedom of Information Act request and
subsequently released, shows that Musk has inflated the capabilities of the
Autopilot advanced driver assistance system in Tesla vehicles, as well the
company's ability to deliver fully autonomous features by the end of the year.
Tesla vehicles
come standard with a driver assistance system branded as Autopilot. For an
additional $10,000, owners can buy "full self-driving," or FSD — a
feature that Musk promises will one day deliver full autonomous driving
capabilities. FSD, which has steadily increased in price and capability, has
been available as an option for years. However, Tesla vehicles are not
self-driving. FSD includes the parking feature Summon as well as Navigate on Autopilot,
an active guidance system that navigates a car from a highway on-ramp to
off-ramp, including interchanges and making lane changes. Once drivers enter a
destination into the navigation system, they can enable "Navigate on
Autopilot" for that trip.
Tesla vehicles
are far from reaching that level of autonomy, a fact confirmed by statements
made by the company's director of Autopilot software CJ Moore to California
regulators, the memo shows.
"Elon's
tweet does not match engineering reality per CJ," according to the memo
summarizing the conversation between regulators with the California Department
of Motor Vehicles' autonomous vehicles branch and four Tesla employees,
including Moore.
Tesla’s
decision to scrap its PR department could create a PR nightmare
The memo, which
was written by California DMV's Miguel Acosta, states that Moore described
Autopilot — and the new features being tested — as a Level 2 system. That
description matters in the world of automated driving.
There are five
levels of automation under standards created by SAE International. Level 2
means two primary functions — like adaptive cruise and lane keeping — are automated
and still have a human driver in the loop at all times. Level 2 is an advanced
driver assistance system, and has become increasingly available in new
vehicles, including those produced by Tesla, GM, Volvo and Mercedes. Tesla's
Autopilot and its more capable FSD were considered the most advanced systems
available to consumers. However, other automakers have started to catch up.
Level 4 means
the vehicle can handle all aspects of driving in certain conditions
without human intervention and is what companies like Argo AI, Aurora, Cruise,
Motional, Waymo and Zoox are working on. Level 5, which is widely viewed as a
distant goal, would handle all driving in all environments and conditions.
Here is an
important bit via Acosta's summarization:
DMV asked CJ to
address from an engineering perspective, Elon’s messaging about L5 capability
by the end of the year. Elon’s tweet does not match engineering reality
per CJ. Tesla is at Level 2 currently. The ratio of driver interaction
would need to be in the magnitude of 1 or 2 million miles per driver
interaction to move into higher levels of automation. Tesla indicated that Elon
is extrapolating on the rates of improvement when speaking about L5
capabilities. Tesla couldn’t say if the rate of improvement would make it to L5
by end of calendar year.
Portions of this
commentary were redacted. However, Plainsite was able to copy and paste the
redacted part, which shows up as white space on a PDF, into another document.
The comments in
the memo are contrary to what Musk has said repeatedly in the public sphere.
Musk is
frequently asked on Twitter and in quarterly earnings calls for progress
reports on FSD, including questions about when it will be rolled out via
software updates to owners who have purchased the option. In a January earnings
call, Musk said he was "highly confident the car will be able to drive
itself with reliability in excess of a human this year." In April 2021,
during the company's first quarter earnings call, Musk said "it's really
quite, quite tricky. But I am highly confident that we will get this
done."
The memo
released this week provided other insights into Tesla's push to test and
eventually unlock greater levels of autonomy, including the number of vehicles
testing a beta version of "Navigate on Autopilot on City
Streets," a feature that is meant to handle driving in urban areas
and not just highways. Regulators also asked the Tesla employees if and how
participants were being trained to test this feature, and how the sales team
ensures that messaging about the vehicle capabilities and limitations are communicated.
What is up with Tesla’s
value?
As of the March
meeting, there were 824 vehicles in a pilot program testing a beta version of
"city streets." About 750 of those vehicles were being driven by
employees and 71 by non-employees. Pilot participants are located across
37 states, with the majority of participants in California. As of March 2021,
pilot participants have driven more than 153,000 miles using the City Streets
feature, the memo states. The memo noted that Tesla planned to expand this pool
of participants to approximately 1,600 later that month.
Tesla told the
DMV that it is working on developing a video for the participants and that the
next group of participants will include referrals from existing participants.
"The new participants will be vetted by Tesla by looking at insurance
telematics based on the VINs registered to that participant," according to
the memo.
Tesla also told
the DMV that it is able to track when there are failures or when the feature is
deactivated. Moore described these as "disengagements," a term also
used by companies testing and developing autonomous vehicle technology. The
primary difference worth noting here is that these companies only use employees
who are trained safety drivers, not the public.
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